Financial marketsIn 2024, the Fed cut the Fed funds rate by 100 basis points and further reduced the volumes of the portfolio of securities purchased during the various quantitative easing programmes. The ECB also interrupted its monetary restriction phase, also reducing the deposit rate by 100 basis points which, in the new monetary policy framework adopted in the course of 2024, became the official policy rate. Starting in September 2024, as part of the new framework, with the aim of maintaining satisfactory liquidity conditions on the money and interbank markets, the ECB simultaneously narrowed the monetary policy corridor from 50 to 15 basis points, cutting the rate refi to 3.15% (-135 basis points). Lastly, in 2024, the ECB continued to reduce the amount of securities held in the portfolio for monetary policy purposes, not renewing maturing securities purchased under the Asset Purchase Programme and reducing the portfolio of securities purchased during the pandemic (as part of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme) at the average rate of €7.5bn per month.
As a result of the ECB’s rate cut, the 3-month Euribor rate closed 2024 down to 2.71%, roughly 120 basis points lower than at the end of 2023, while the 10-year swap rate reduced over the same period by about 12 basis points, closing 2024 at 2.37%.
In Germany, the 10-year Bund closed 2024 at 2.38%, up by around 35 basis points on the values at the end of 2023, whilst in Italy the 10-year BTP closed 2024 at 3.53%, down 15 basis points. The 10-year spread between Italian and German rates was therefore 115 basis points at the end of 2024, down 51 basis points from its value at the end of 2023.
2024 ended favourably for international stock markets. In Europe, the Eurostoxx 50 index, which refers to the Euro Area indexes, showed an increase of 8.3% in 2024 compared to the end of 2023. The FTSE Mib index, referring to Italian listed companies, recorded an increase of 12.6% during the same period, while the DAX index, referring to German listed companies, closed 2024 up by 18.8% compared to December 2023.
In the United States, the S&P 500 index instead closed 2024 ahead by 23.3% compared to the values at the end of 2023. International stock markets also closed 2024 with significant gains: the Nikkei stock index, referring to listed companies in Japan, closed 2024 with growth of 19.2% compared to December 2023, while the Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets index (MSCI EM), referring to emerging markets, recorded a more limited increase at 31 December 2024 of 5.1% compared to December 2023.
The expansion of interest rate spreads between the United States and the Euro Area favoured a 6% appreciation of the US dollar against the euro, with the euro/dollar exchange rate closing 2024 at 1.04 dollars to the euro compared to 1.10 at the end of 2023.
Insurance Sector
The final figures for the third quarter of 2024 show premiums in the Italian and non-EU direct business insurance market of approximately €109.3bn, up 16.4% compared to the third quarter of 2023. We therefore estimate that 2024 will close with a substantial increase compared to the previous year, i.e. with premiums close to €149bn (+16% compared to 2023).
In the third quarter of 2024, total Italian and non-EU direct business Non-Life premiums written increased by 7.7% compared to the same quarter of 2023 and therefore year-end growth of 7.3% is expected, with premiums exceeding €40bn.
ANIA surveys for the third quarter of 2024 show total premiums of the classes MV TPL, Marine Vessels TPL and Land Vehicle Hulls up by 8.8% compared to the same period of the previous year, driven by the positive premium trend in MV TPL (+6.8%) and the positive trend of Land Vehicle Hulls (+15.2%). The increase in MV TPL premiums was favoured by higher average MV TPL premiums, which were up by approximately 7% compared to the same quarter of 2023 (standing at €416 compared to €389 last year, according to the IPER surveys published by IVASS referring to the third quarter of 2024). The increase in the average premium is also confirmed by the ISTAT list values, which increased by 7.2% in December compared to the same month in 2023. We estimate that total MV segment volumes at the end of 2024 will be up by around 8.3% compared to 2023.